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秋田浩之 特朗普特府的作法和文化大革命的相似之处

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发表于 2025-3-17 19:50:04 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
日经新闻:特朗普特府消弱联邦政府的作法和文化大革命有相似之处


日经新闻作者秋田浩之(Hiroyuki Akita)在评论文章中指出,马斯克对联邦政府的大清洗已经涉及到国防和外交,专家认为这和毛泽东在中国发动的文化大革命已经很有相似之处。



特朗普的政府正在进行一场前所未有的联邦政府削减成本行动,以改革的名义大幅削弱官僚体系,这可能会带来全球性影响。马斯克正领导这项工作,他担任由特朗普行政令设立的临时机构——政府效率部(DOGE)负责人。

华盛顿对这场重组普遍感到震惊。重要项目的预算被突然削减,政府工作人员和非政府组织的雇员担心自己会失去工作。


在特朗普的要求下,马斯克计划大幅削减目前超过200万人的联邦政府雇员规模,并削减超过1万亿美元的联邦支出。这一削减金额将占全部可自由支配支出的50%以上,其中包括国防和外交政策支出。

马斯克对此任务态度积极,向大多数公务员发送了一封电子邮件,鼓励他们提交“延期辞职”申请。负责对外援助的美国国际开发署(USAID)雇佣了约1万名员工,但已被迫暂时关闭。

国防部本周计划裁员5400名文职人员。据路透社报道,退伍军人事务部和林务局分别解雇了超过1000名和3000多名仍处于试用期的员工。教育部、消费者金融保护局和人事管理办公室也向试用期员工发出了裁员通知。

这一行动已经超出了精简机构的范畴,接近于实质性削弱美国的官僚体系。

在中国,1966年至1976年间,时任共产党领导人毛泽东发动文化大革命,以加强对党的控制,使国家陷入混乱。他通过个人崇拜煽动年轻的“红卫兵”迫害知识精英。

当时的国家主席刘少奇和邓小平等务实派精英被迫下台,政府机构和学校也陷入瘫痪。

尽管规模不同,但华盛顿当前发生的某些情况与当年的情形存在相似之处。

特朗普认为联邦政府的官僚精英可能威胁到他的权力掌控。许多官僚被认为倾向自由派,更支持民主党。

特朗普正在利用马斯克的年轻人,就像毛泽东的红卫兵一样,清除那些不表现出足够忠诚的工作人员。

特朗普尤其反对政府内的多元化、公平和包容(DEI)政策,这些政策在拜登执政期间得到了扩展。

特朗普的许多支持者认为,种族或少数族裔群体成员在政府或企业招聘中不应获得特殊待遇。马斯克也反对DEI,他认为能力应当是首要标准。

庞大的美国政府中肯定存在浪费,确实需要提高效率,DEI政策若执行过度也可能带来负面影响。然而,采取极端措施破坏机构,可能会削弱政府的重要职能。



对外交政策的影响尤其值得关注。美国国际开发署每年预算达400亿美元,长期以来支持中东欧和新兴国家的独立媒体和非政府组织,以推动民主发展。

这一机构的关闭让中国和俄罗斯感到高兴,因为这两个国家一直反对USAID的工作。俄罗斯联邦安全会议副主席德米特里·梅德韦杰夫称此举为“明智之举”。

削减措施甚至影响到了国家安全。美国媒体报道称,中央情报局全体人员都收到了“延期辞职”提议。

一名曾在特朗普第一任期内负责国家安全政策的前高级官员表示,特朗普认为美国情报机构是他的政治敌人,因为他曾被指控与俄罗斯共谋干预2016年总统选举。对此事的公开调查最终未能得出确凿证据。

这名前官员表示:“特朗普认为CIA泄露了相关信息,试图推翻他。”

所有人都在关注这一系列削减措施对国防部和军队的影响。《华盛顿邮报》周三报道称,国防部长皮特·海格塞斯已下令在未来五年内,每年削减国防预算8%。他还解雇了拜登任内任命的高级军官。

一位接近特朗普的安全专家表示:“武器的研发和采购涉及庞大预算,确实有很大的效率提升空间。”

但一位前国防部高级官员警告说:“未经仔细审查就急于削减预算,可能会导致威慑力下降。”

对美国及其盟友来说,最理想的情况是这次重组能够提高政府效率,更有能力与中国和俄罗斯竞争。

日本研究所研究主任、中国内部事务专家,本科毕业于复旦大学的吴军华表示:“毛泽东和特朗普的方法相似,都是通过动员群众试图摧毁现有权力结构。但特朗普的目标是精简臃肿的政府。如果他成功了,美国可能会重新崛起为超级大国。中国或许正战战兢兢地观察。”

中国的文化大革命浪费了十年宝贵时间。特朗普应该把这个毛泽东的失败当作警示。


https://caus.com/all-articles/news/414150/

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 楼主| 发表于 2025-3-17 19:50:46 | 显示全部楼层
美國掀起「文化大革命」風暴?馬斯克操刀「削弱官僚體系」...《日經》:恐影響國防與外交
美國總統川普(Donald Trump)上任後,便成立由美國企業家馬斯克(Elon Musk)執掌的諮詢機構「政府效率部」,目的在大幅削減聯邦政府開支。據《日經》報導,美國聯邦政府正遭受前所未見的大規模裁撤,在「改革」之名下,削弱官僚體系。《日經》指出,馬斯克在川普的授意下,計畫大幅裁減超過200萬名政府職員,並將聯邦政府的支出減少1兆美元,包括國防與外交預算。

以下為《日本經濟新聞》全文報導:



美國掀起「文化大革命」風暴 政府機構遭削弱影響外交



美國聯邦政府正遭受川普政府前所未見的大規模裁撤。在「改革」之名下,削弱官僚體系的計畫逐漸明朗。川普政府還計劃大幅削減國防預算,這一舉動勢必對全球局勢產生深遠影響。



超大規模的政府重組與裁撤



主導這項政策的是企業家伊隆・馬斯克所領導的政府效率化部(DOGE),這是川普總統透過行政命令設立的臨時機構,目標是縮小美國政府規模。



當我造訪華盛頓時,可以感受到政府裁撤帶來的衝擊。許多重要計畫的預算突然被削減,民間組織(NGO)與政府內部都充滿了對於失業的焦慮聲浪。



馬斯克在川普的授意下,計畫大幅裁減超過200萬名政府職員,並將聯邦政府的支出減少1兆美元(約150兆日圓),這相當於裁量性支出的一半以上,其中包括國防與外交預算。




馬斯克的行動極具決心,他向大多數政府職員發送了早期退休通知,甚至暫時關閉了負責海外援助的美國國際開發署(USAID),該機構擁有約1萬名員工。本週起,國防部亦開始裁減5400名非軍職人員。



根據路透社報導,退伍軍人事務部已解雇超過1000名試用期員工,美國森林局也讓超過3000名員工提前退休。教育部、消費者金融保護局、人事管理局等機構亦開始針對試用期員工發出解雇通知。



此舉已經遠遠超越了「提高政府效率」的範疇,川普政府的行動更像是在削弱官僚體系的權力。



美國版的「文化大革命」?



1966年至1976年,中國發生了文化大革命。當時,毛澤東為了奪回權力,發動運動,導致全國陷入混亂。他透過個人崇拜,煽動被稱為紅衛兵的年輕人,迫害知識分子與精英階層,並導致國家主席劉少奇與鄧小平等實務派領袖遭到罷黜,政府與教育機構的功能也嚴重受損。



雖然華盛頓當前的情況與當時的中國有所不同,但仍能發現相似之處。



DEI與USAID成為攻擊目標



為了掌握國家權力,川普將聯邦政府的官僚精英視為潛在敵人,因為聯邦政府內部的官員多數傾向自由派,並較支持民主黨。因此,川普利用馬斯克這名「紅衛兵」,試圖將不忠於他的政府職員清除。



川普特別敵視推動**DEI(多樣性、公平性、包容性)**政策的勢力。該政策在拜登政府時期廣泛推行,強調種族與性別多元化。但在川普支持者中,許多人反對少數族裔或性少數群體在政府與企業中獲得特殊優待。馬斯克也基於「能力至上」的觀點,與川普一同敵視DEI。



美國龐大的政府機構確實存在許多浪費,提高效率確有必要。然而,過度削減不僅會產生負面影響,甚至可能削弱關鍵政府機能。



美國外交政策的衝擊



特別令人擔憂的是外交政策的影響。USAID長期在中東歐及新興國家推動民主化,並資助獨立媒體與NGO,其年度預算高達400億美元(約6兆日圓)。



USAID的暫時關閉,對中國與俄羅斯來說是求之不得的好事。俄羅斯安全會議副主席梅德韋傑夫甚至稱讚這一舉措是「明智之舉」。



CIA與國防預算同樣面臨縮減



裁撤風暴也波及國家安全領域。據美國媒體報導,川普政府已向中央情報局(CIA)全體職員發出早期退休通知。



曾在川普第一任期內參與國安政策的前高官透露,川普一直將CIA視為「敵人」,因為2016年美國大選時,CIA曾調查其團隊與俄羅斯勾結干預選舉的指控。儘管官方調查最終未能找到決定性證據,但川普始終認為CIA試圖打擊他。



更值得關注的是國防部的動向。據**《華盛頓郵報》2月19日報導,國防部長海格塞斯已收到指示,在未來五年內,每年削減國防預算8%**,並計畫解雇拜登政府時期任命的軍方高層官員。



川普的國安顧問指出,美國在軍備研發與採購上確實存在巨額浪費,因此有改善空間。然而,國防部前高官警告,如果缺乏周密分析就貿然削減預算,可能導致美國的軍事威懾力下降。



文化大革命應作為借鏡



對美國及其盟友而言,最佳情境是這場裁撤行動能提高政府效率,並加強美國對中國與俄羅斯的競爭力。



日本綜合研究所的資深研究員吳軍華分析指出:「毛澤東與川普的手法在某些方面相似,兩者都試圖利用民間力量來破壞既有的權力結構。」



但他進一步表示:「不同的是,川普的目標是提高政府效率。如果這場改革成功,美國將可能重新崛起為超級大國。中國或許正戰戰兢兢地觀察這一變化。」



中國曾因文化大革命而浪費了寶貴的十年,如今川普政府若能以此為借鏡,避免重蹈覆轍,將是更明智的選擇。





(圖片來源:三立新聞)

https://tw.news.yahoo.com/%E7%BE ... 3%BB-073302998.html
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 楼主| 发表于 2025-3-17 19:53:05 | 显示全部楼层
Gowest 发表于 2025-3-17 19:50
美國掀起「文化大革命」風暴?馬斯克操刀「削弱官僚體系」...《日經》:恐影響國防與外交
美國總統川普(Do ...

Trump's cost-slashing Cultural Revolution risks harming U.S.
Defense and diplomacy not spared from Elon Musk-led purge of bureaucrats


HIROYUKI AKITA
February 25, 2025 22:36 JST
TOKYO -- U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is embarking on an unprecedented campaign of cost cuts in the federal government, designed to dramatically weaken the bureaucracy in the name of reform, with potentially global repercussions.

Elon Musk is heading this effort as the head of the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, a temporary organization created by Trump's executive order.

There is widespread shock in Washington over the restructuring. Budgets for important projects were abruptly cut, and government workers and employees of nongovernmental organizations worried that they could lose their jobs.

At Trump's behest, Musk aims to significantly pare down the federal workforce from its current headcount of more than 2 million, and slash federal spending by over $1 trillion. The latter cuts would amount to more than half of all discretionary outlays, including spending on defense and foreign policy.

Musk is taking his task seriously. The administration sent an email to most government employees encouraging them to take "deferred resignations." The U.S. Agency for International Development, which oversees foreign aid and employed roughly 10,000 people, was temporarily forced to shut down. The Department of Defense is set to lay off 5,400 civilian workers this week.

The Department of Veterans Affairs and the Forest Service have fired more than 1,000 and over 3,000 employees still in their probationary periods, respectively, according to Reuters. The Department of Education, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and the Office of Personnel Management have also issued layoff notices to probationary workers.

This has already gone beyond streamlining. The effort verges on effectively weakening the U.S. bureaucracy.

In China, between 1966 and 1976, Communist Party leader Mao Zedong launched the Cultural Revolution in a bid to shore up his control over the party, throwing the country into chaos. He stirred up young "Red Guards" through a cult of personality to persecute intellectual elites.

Pragmatist elites such as then-President Liu Shaoqi and Deng Xiaoping were forced out of power, and government institutions and schools became crippled.




Mao Zedong sparked China's decade-long Cultural Revolution, which forced out elites and weakened government and educational institutions.   © Getty Images/Kyodo
Though the scales involved are very different, some aspects of that time resemble what is happening in Washington now.

Trump perceives bureaucratic elites in the federal government as a potential threat to his grip on power. Many bureaucrats are believed to lean liberal, favoring the Democratic Party. Trump is using Musk as Mao's Red Guard to purge workers who do not show sufficient loyalty.

The president is especially hostile toward diversity, equity and inclusion efforts in the government, which broadened under previous President Joe Biden.

Many of Trump's supporters believe members of racial or ethnic minority groups should not receive special consideration in government or corporate hiring. Musk also opposes DEI on the grounds that ability should be the top priority.

There is plenty of waste to be found in the enormous U.S. government, and its efficiency needs to be improved. Going too far with DEI can also cause harm. But drastic steps intended to destroy institutions risk weakening important functions of the government.

The impact on foreign policy is of particular concern. USAID has supported independent media and NGOs in Central and Eastern Europe and emerging countries to promote democracy. It has an annual budget of $40 billion.

Its shutdown was welcome news for China and Russia, which have opposed the agency's work. Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council, praised it as a "smart move."

The cuts extend as far as national security. The offer of deferred resignations went out to the entire Central Intelligence Agency, U.S. media reported.

According to a former senior official who handled national security policy during the first Trump administration, the president considers U.S. intelligence agencies to be political enemies, after he was suspected of colluding with Russia to interfere with the 2016 presidential election. A public investigation into the matter ended after finding no conclusive evidence.

Trump "believes the CIA leaked such information in an attempt to bring him down," the former official said.

All eyes are on the impact on the Department of Defense and the military. The Washington Post reported Wednesday that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth ordered defense budget cuts of 8% annually over the next five years. He has also dismissed top military officers who had been appointed under Biden.

"The development and procurement of weapons, which involves a huge budget, is expensive, and there is much room for greater efficiency," a security expert close to Trump said.

But a former senior DoD official warned that "rushing to cut budgets without scrutiny could lead to a decline in deterrence."

The best-case scenario for the U.S. and its allies would be a restructuring that improves the government's efficiency and enables it to better compete against China and Russia.

"Mao's and Trump's methods are similar in that they both galvanized the masses in an attempt to destroy existing power structures," said Wu Junhua, research director at Japan Research Institute and an expert in China's internal affairs. "But the latter aims to streamline a bloated government. If he succeeds, the U.S. is likely to be revived as a superpower. China is probably watching with trepidation."

China's Cultural Revolution wasted 10 valuable years. Trump should use its failures as a cautionary tale.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotligh ... n-risks-harming-U.S

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